Pretenders, Contenders

We're starting to see the shape of this year's baseball season a bit more clearly.

Some teams are really good. The Red Sox, White Sox and Angels, perhaps the Rays.

The jury's still out on the A's, who might be able to contend. (Or not.) It's hard to know what to think about the Yankees. They were even worse last year but came back. You can't write them off too quickly -- they have such a huge payroll that they could go out and buy a pitcher.

They need more pitching, that's for sure. The Yankees probably need Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, but Kyle Farmsworth is not the answer as the setup guy.

The Orioles, Yankees and Jays are all at .500. You'd think the Yankeees are the one team that might contend, but who knows?

In the AL Central, you keep waiting for the Indians to make a move. They should be good, especially with Cliff Lee having such as great season. Look for them to go on a streak and challenge the White Sox.

The Twins are a year away from contending. The Tigers just look terrible. And, like the Yankees, too old. The post-steroid era rewards youth.

In the National League, the toughest team to figure out is Arizona and the weirdest division the West. The Diamondbacks looked like the best team in the league. They've been in a slump.

But what about that division? Before the season it appeared to be the best in the National League, with the Rockies, Dodgers and D'Backs all contending. Colorado's been horrible and the Dodgers mediocre. The Giants, who figured to be awful, have won four games in a row. The Rockies have the worst record in the National League. The Padres have been terrible but swept the Mets. Go figure.

That division hasn't shaken out yet. That's true of the East as well. The Phillies sure have the hitting, but do they have enough pitching? Probably enough to win that league, with the Mets shaky and the Braves mediocre.

The Cubs are a good-looking team. Forget the curse -- the Cubs lost when they didn't have enough players.  This year's team has a strong rotation, deep bullpen and solid lineup. It's the best Cubs team I've ever seen -- much better than the 1984 and 1989 teams that had major weaknesses.

The Cubs had a good road trip, ending with a split in Los Angeles. It was a good sign that Carlos Zambrano lost his game but Jason Marquis came back the next day to win. Kerry Wood just blew away the Dodgers in the ninth in that last game -- he's starting to look like he has the stuff to be an awesome closer.

But watch out for the Brewers. They've been coming on and could be a dark horse to reach the playoffs. The Cardinals and Astros have cooled off.

Of course, it's only June. Some teams will make a strong second-half bid. Who will they be?

As a longtime Yankee-hater, I hate to say this, but the Yanks will probably at least challenge for the playoffs. They haven't missed the postseason in many years. They don't appear to have nearly enough pitching to challenge the Red Sox, but the Rays might falter. Who knows.

I think the Indians will be heard from. They were the second-best team in the major leagues last year. They should've beaten the Red Sox ... but C.C. Sabathia wasn't good enough and Josh Beckett was too good.

In the National League, I think the Mets might make a push. Johan Santana is a notorious second-half pitcher and should dominate the weaker league. And the Mets aren't too far back despite have some rough patches.

I think Arizona will recover despite playing poorly lately.

There are always X factors. Some key players will get hurt. Someone will make a big trade. Some team will make a push out of nowhere -- like the Twins did two years ago. Who couldn't predicted that the Rockies would get so hot at the end of the season last year? And what would've happened if the Rockies had been to play without all that time off?

Who will be this year's Rockies?

My best guess: Cleveland.